Congress, The Fed, Low Home Loan Rates, Oh My!

In This Issue Last Week in Review: Washington was at it again, with big news from both Congress and the Fed. Learn what this means for you...and for home loan rates! Forecast for the Week: Two juicy economic reports bookend the week, bringing highly anticipated news on inflation and the labor market. View: Hitting the road for July 4th? Want to avoid a speeding ticket? Read on below.

Last Week in Review What happens in Washington doesn't stay in Washington! And there was a lot happening in Washington this past week, between the Fed’s two-day meeting and actions in Congress. So how will all of these happenings impact you…and home loan rates, which are near all-time lows? Read on for details. Last week, the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 0.25%, and also reiterated in its Policy Statement that economic conditions warrant keeping the Fed Funds Rate low for an “extended period”. First, what is the Fed Funds Rate? It is the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on, for consumer and business loans. And second, why is the “extended period” language significant? The Fed has to time very carefully any action – or even hints of action – on raising the Fed Funds Rate, which they have held at the lowest levels in history for the last year and a half. If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a "double dip" recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates...and signs of inflation could definitely cause home loan rates to worsen from their current low levels. Even though there have been more concerns expressed by various Fed members about inflation and the long term effects of keeping the Fed Funds Rate too low for too long, the economic data recently reported (such as the weak Jobs Report and other reports showing inflation is tame at present) as well as the ongoing issues in Europe helped the “extended period” language to survive through another Fed meeting. This is an important issue to keep watch on. Congress was just as busy as the Fed last week. On Thursday, the Financial Reform Bill was finally reconciled between the House and Senate. The final draft includes a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which will have the authority to police banks for mortgage lending and credit-card abuses. The bill will move to the President for his signature once both houses of Congress approve the final version. However, Congress did not pass the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. Note: This extension was only going to be for people who were under contract by the initial April 30th deadline, extending their June 30th closing deadline to September 30th. The extension was part of the larger Jobs Bill, which included State aid and an extension of unemployment benefits for people out of work more than six months – and would have added $33B to the deficit. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors is saying that up to 30% of homes that went under contract by the April 30th deadline of the Homebuyer Tax Credit will likely not close by the current June 30th deadline. There was other housing news last week, as both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales were well below expectations. While a decline in sales was expected after people were racing to qualify for the April 30th Tax Credit deadline, the numbers are still a bit of a disappointment. However – home prices remain affordable, and home loan rates are far from disappointing at the moment...last week they reached all time low levels! If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about this exceptional opportunity, please don’t hesitate to call or email. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to consult with them free of charge. The FASTEST WAY TO TAKE THE FUN OUT OF ANY ROADTRIP IS TO COME HOME WITH A SPEEDING TICKET. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT AVOIDING SPEED TRAPS.

Forecast for the Week There will be plenty happening this week, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The week may start with a bang, as Monday’s Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports arrive, giving us a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index as well...which just happens to be the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Rest assured the Fed will be watching this report very closely. Any hint that inflation is heating up could definitely impact the Fed’s decision on rates and the “extended period” language at future Fed meetings. Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 457,000 last week and Continuing Claims at 4.55 Million. In addition, an additional 4.73M people are claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits. The continuing high level of unemployment claims is disturbing, but things will improve. Remember, job losses come in the thousands as companies endure sweeping layoffs, but individuals are hired back one at a time. And remember – since the Jobs Bill has not been passed, more people will start to drop off extended unemployment benefits – and rejoin the workforce as formally unemployed. And there could be some real fireworks on Friday, as the Labor Department releases the Jobs Report for June. Last month’s Jobs Report showed 431,000 jobs created in May. While on the surface this seems positive, the number was below expectations and also was primarily made up of temporary census workers…who will once again join the ranks of the unemployed when the 2010 Census has been completed. The Unemployment Rate did drop from 9.9% to 9.7%, but overall May’s Jobs Report was disappointing. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, home loan rates hit record low levels last week. I’ll be watching closely to see if this trend continues. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, June 25, 2010)

The Mortgage Market Guide View... A Safe and Ticket-Free Fourth! In just a few short days, drivers across the country will hit the road to celebrate the Fourth of July with friends and family. If you’re heading down the road this coming weekend, remember that it’s never a good idea to speed – both for safety and financial reasons. After all, an accident or ticket can ruin your holiday weekend. So make sure you have plenty of time and that you plan the most effective route. And...you may even want to take a minute to find out if there are any speed traps on your route that you should know about. Thanks to the website speedtrap.org, you can easily read about speed traps in communities across the country. Simply visit speedtrap.org and click on the state and then the cities that you’ll be driving through. You can even add a speed trap you know about, so others can benefit from your knowledge. Whether you’re traveling a few miles or a few hundred, have a safe and ticket-free Fourth of July! Economic Calendar for the Week of June 28 - July 02 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Income May 0.5%   0.4% Moderate Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.1%   0.0% Moderate Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE May 0.1%   0.1% HIGH Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.2% HIGH Tue. June 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0   63.3 Moderate Wed. June 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/26 NA   2.02M Moderate Wed. June 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 59.5   59.7 HIGH Wed. June 30 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jun 61K   55K HIGH Thu. July 01 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 6/26 458K   457K Moderate Thu. July 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 59.0   59.7 HIGH Thu. July 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales May -10.5%   6.0% Moderate Fri. July 02 01:00 Non-farm Payrolls Jun -100K   431K HIGH Fri. July 02 01:00 Unemployment Rate Jun 9.8%   9.7% HIGH Fri. July 02 01:00 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.1%   0.3% HIGH Fri. July 02 01:00 Average Work Week Jun 34.2   34.2 HIGH The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors. As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: unsubscribe@mmgweekly.com If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is: Sean K. La Rue 44-800 Village Ct. Palm Desert, CA 92260 Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

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Laid Off Teachers Called Back to School

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Senate approves home tax credit extension

Senate approves home tax credit extension

By ANDREW TAYLOR (AP) – 3 hours ago

WASHINGTON — The Senate on Wednesday approved a plan to give homebuyers an extra three months to finish qualifying for federal tax incentives that boosted home sales this spring.

The move by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would give buyers until Sept. 30 to complete their purchases and qualify for tax credits of up to $8,000. Under the current terms, buyers had until April 30 to get a signed sales contract and until June 30 to complete the sale.

The proposal, approved by a 60-37 vote, would only allow people who already have signed contracts to finish at the later date. About 180,000 homebuyers who already signed purchase agreements would otherwise miss the deadline.

Reid, D-Nev., added the proposal to a bill extending jobless benefits through the end of November. Nevada has the nation's highest foreclosure rate, and Reid is facing a tough re-election campaign.

The Realtors group has been pushing hard in Congress for the extension. Mortgage lenders, the trade group says, have been swamped with borrowers trying to get approved by the end of the month. Many potential borrowers are unlikely to make the deadline.

"If Congress fails to act promptly, then prospective homebuyers might not get the benefit of the homebuyer tax credit, even though they have completed contracts," the Realtors said a letter to lawmakers.

First-time buyers were eligible for a tax credit of up to $8,000. Current owners who bought and moved into another home could qualify for a credit of up to $6,500.

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INTERPRETING THE CORRECTION (Stock market News) by Max Briggs

INTERPRETING THE CORRECTION

A blip in the bull market? Or is more selling ahead? A look at some opinions.

Provided by Max Briggs, CFP^®

Sooner or later, a bull market experiences a correction: a decline of at least 10% from a peak. We’ve now seen the first correction in the present bull market: the Dow went below 10,000 on May 25 (and rebounded).¹

When a correction occurs, there is the chance that it portends something greater – that is, the eventual end of a bull. With so much talk over the last year about a potential “double-dip” recession (shades of the 1970s), a 1,000-point Dow reversal naturally makes people wonder what the future holds.

The mood still seems bullish. We have a debt situation in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain that could potentially leave U.S. and European banks vulnerable. We also watched the euro slide in May, which left U.S. markets dealing with a stronger dollar (a development that harshly impacted dollar-denominated commodities like gold and oil). However, bulls remind us that we are seeing a definite U.S. economic recovery.

As Bill Smead, CIO of Smead Capital Management, told CNBC: “While everyone’s worried about [Europe], things are improving significantly for U.S. consumers. American corporations are the most flush with cash they’ve been for 25 to 30 years and profit margins are excellent.” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., also weighed in on that cable channel, cautioning CNBC that the euro’s May struggles were being “misinterpreted as a barometer for an economic slowdown.”^1,2

Respected Hong Kong-based wealth manager Puru Saxena called May’s correction “a routine pullback” and told CNBC that in his opinion, the current bull market will go on into 2012. He sees the Federal Reserve increasing the money supply if U.S. stocks correct more severely. “Money printing is going to keep this rally going for at least another couple of years until such time when the market forces the central banks to raises interest rates,’ he commented.³

If the bulls run past the current anxiety and run for another couple of years or more, "the first year will win the prize by far when it comes to magnitude of returns," thinks Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock. Doll sees the European debt crisis as an “aftershock” from the “major financial earthquake” of 2008, and he thinks additional rude awakenings could occur during this bull run.⁴

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citi Investment Research, reminded USA TODAY that "normally, economic recoveries last a couple of years" or longer, which promotes relative longevity of bull markets. As the economy recovers, so do earnings – and great earnings translate to good times on Wall Street.⁴  

But is this just a cyclical bull in a secular bear? That’s another thought. Some market-watchers think this is all the current bull market represents. They point to the mid-1970s, a time which also saw a struggling U.S. economy and major ascents and descents in the Dow. They reference the 1930s, when the market underwent similar gyrations. In DJIA history, cyclical bulls within secular bears have averaged 22.5 months, with an average gain of better than 60%.⁵

We have seen increased volatility, and the restlessness may hang around for a while. At SmartMoney.com, Hennion & Walsh CIO Kevin Mahn shared his view that “we’re going to see a series of starts and stops throughout 2010. The market clearly doesn’t have a direction right now because of all the political and macroeconomic uncertainty.” Tom Samuels, Palatir Fund’s portfolio manager, feels that “May is about the market shifting its focus from the economic recovery story to a debt-driven reality, which is not so rosy a picture.” He sees a bear market ahead if the sovereign debt crisis lingers.⁶

To wrap up, a little history. While the past is no indication of the future when it comes to stock market performance, we can draw encouragement from it. In June, the current bull market will head into its fifteenth month, so it is not exactly long in the tooth. According to InvesTech Research, all mature bull markets since 1947 have lasted at least 24 months and averaged four years in duration.⁴

FLC Capital Advisors is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm licensed with the State of California. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc:  Registered Broker/Dealer:  Member FINRA * SIPC *Max Briggs * Registered Representative * CA Insurance License # OB85518 * Danny Neil * Registered Representative * CA Insurance License # 0D54831 * FLC Capital Advisors and Securities America all not affiliated.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representative nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information.. www.petermontoya.com, www.montoyaregistry.com, www.marketinglibrary.net

Citations

1 – cnbc.com/id/37334721 [5/25/10]

2 - marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-fall-on-unexpected-jobless-claims-jump-2010-05-20?dist=afterbell [5/20/10]

3 - cnbc.com/id/37397264 [5/28/10]

4 - usatoday.com/money/markets/2010-03-09-bullanniversary09_CV_N.htm [3/9/10]

5 - seekingalpha.com/article/111382-cyclical-bull-meets-secular-bear [12/18/08]

6 - smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/is-the-correction-over-yet/ [3/9/10]

 

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News Worthy

San Francisco Muni rider Brian Brooks snapped a picture of three fellow passengers consuming media in three very different ways—by newspaper, Kindle, and iPad. SFist blogger Brock Keeling proposed that the image perfectly represents the past, present, and future of media. So what does the empty seat represent? One clever commenter theorized it was “reserved for web 4.0.”

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