Last Week in Review

Written by Mortgage Market Guide...

For the week of Apr 14, 2008 --- Vol. 6, Issue 16



Last Week in Review



"IT REQUIRES A GREAT DEAL OF BOLDNESS AND A GREAT DEAL OF CAUTION TO MAKE A GREAT FORTUNE." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson. And a great deal of caution was definitely important last week, as "earnings season" began on Wall Street. First quarter earnings for Stocks got off to a bit of a rough start, with disappointing news from aluminum company Alcoa - always the first in line to report. And General Electric surprised to the downside on Friday, with worse than expected earnings and comments on future earnings, cautioning they'd likely be lower than previously thought. The Stock market didn't like the negative tone and lost some ground, while Bonds moved both up and down during the week - hurt by some inflationary fears, but helped by cash coming over from Stocks. For the week overall, home loan rates ended up close to where they began.

In other news last week, "Meeting Minutes" from the March 18th Fed meeting revealed that infamous Fed Presidents Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher and Charlie Plosser both dissented from the recent decision to cut the Fed Funds Rate, stating that "inflation expectations could potentially become unhinged, if the Fed continues to lower the Fed Funds Rate in the current environment." Bold comments from two who clearly believe caution regarding inflation is of the utmost importance.

And caution, rather than confidence, seems to be the word of the moment, as Consumer Sentiment for April was reported far below expectations, representing a 26-yr low for the index. This very ugly reading suggests that consumers may be hesitant to make large purchases, which does not bode well for future economic prospects.

Despite the dark cloud cast from the negative economic news, the silver lining is that home loan rates are once again near levels not seen since mid-2005. But remember, these low rates can change quickly. To see how you may benefit from the current market conditions, feel free to contact me.

SPEAKING OF GREAT FORTUNES, ARE YOU EXPECTING A REFUND BACK FROM THE IRS THIS YEAR? OR ARE YOU ONE OF THE MILLIONS WHO HAVEN'T FILED YET? CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME IMPORTANT LAST-MINUTE TAX TIPS!


Forecast for the Week



And with the word "caution" in mind...there are several reports due this week which could impact the markets and home loan rates. Monday's Retail Sales Report will kick-off the week with some potential for volatility, and Wednesday will bring the inflation measuring Consumer Price Index, as well as a read on the housing market via the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report.

Bonds continue to bounce around in a wide range - and remember, when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. The chart below shows how Bond prices are recently moving between a floor of support at the 50-day Moving Average, and an overhead ceiling representing recent price "highs".

So stay tuned - if this week's news turns out to be as negative as it has of late, Bond prices and home loan rates could find a bit more improvement.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 11, 2008)


The Mortgage Market View...



TAX TIME IS HERE AGAIN...

"I shall never use profanity...except in discussing house rent and taxes." ~Mark Twain. April 15 is just a few days away...and hopefully this year's tax season hasn't caused too much profanity in your household. Of course it's always wise to be careful about criticizing the IRS, but no matter what you feel like saying about them at the moment, they have compiled these helpful tips for last-minute filers:

Go electronic. The biggest advice the IRS has for last-minute filers is to file an e-return rather than a paper tax form. The IRS considers this the best step for ensuring that your return is complete and accurate.

Check it carefully - then check it again. If you choose to file a paper return, make sure you double-check your numbers and figures. The numbers to check most carefully are the identification numbers--usually Social Security numbers--for each person listed. Missing, illegible, or incorrect Social Security Numbers can reduce or delay a tax refund.

Also, you should double check that you have correctly calculated the refund or balance due, and that you have used the right figure from the tax table. If you are entitled to a refund this year, make sure that your financial institution's routing and account numbers are entered accurately. Incorrect numbers can cause the refund to be delayed or even misdirected.

Sign on the bottom line. Don't forget to sign and date your return. If you are filing a joint return, both spouses must sign it...even if only one had income. Also, anyone that you pay to help prepare your return must sign it as well.

Make payable to...? If you owe taxes this year, you must make the check out to "United States Treasury." Do not make the check out to "IRS." Your payment should be enclosed with the tax return or the Form 1040-V, Payment Voucher (if used), but do not attach your payment to either document.

Don't throw away those labels. If you choose to mail a paper return, use the peel-off label on the tax booklet. You can line through and make corrections right on the label if necessary. If you do not have a peel-off label, fill in all requested information clearly, including the Social Security numbers.

Don't be late! By the April 15 due date, taxpayers should either file a return or request an extension of time to file. Remember, the extension of time to file is not an extension of time to pay.

For more information, as well as forms and publications, visit www.IRS.gov. Remember the official IRS governmental Web site is www.irs.gov. Don't be confused by internet sites that end in .com, .net, .org, or other designations instead of .gov. And for a complete checklist and a listing of some of the most common errors, visit http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc303.html, or call the IRS's TeleTax number, 800-829-4477.